Endogenous household reorganization and social program manipulation

We study the effects of unconditional cash transfers to Syrian refugees in Lebanon on household composition and child migration between households. Using a regression discontinuity design, we do not find evidence that children regularly move from non-beneficiary households to those receiving benefits. While a survey of households appears to support the hypothesis that they reorganize based on whether they receive assistance, other data sources concerning the same households suggest otherwise. Instead, we find evidence that non-beneficiary households likely overreport the number of household members in an effort to increase the assistance they receive. This misreporting is predominantly driven by households that have recently stopped receiving program assistance, and more than 85% of the effect of treatment on reported household size is explained by non-beneficiary households overreporting the number of girls aged five and below. These results underscore the importance of considering the incentives for endogenous household reorganization and misreporting in the context of aid policies.

Keywords: unconditional cash transfers; refugees; household composition; program manipulation; misreporting; regression discontinuity; targeting; Lebanon; Syrian refugees.